Skip to main content
Topic: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast (Read 4155 times) previous topic - next topic
shawny, enz, ratlice, sleeper and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #45
I'd love to know what Davies and Wright are thinking right about now.
If you search for it there was an interview with Davies just late last week, I think it was either SEN or Fox Footy, that had Davies basically ruling a line through Fraser stating he has some deficiencies and is not yet ready for senior coaching.

What's interesting to me is that this raises the question, why then is the current setup working? Is it on the players, or is a less autocratic model perhaps the real solution, a solution that most in the AFL can't accept?

We can't know, but I truly suspect Davies comments indicate that at the moment the weekly result is an unsustainable team effort, who'd have thunk it?

To me that's old world thinking, corporate mentality, the opposite of war, and it flies in the face of the concept that a champion team defeats a team of champions. The most effective unit in the military is the small independant unit SAS model, the opposite of Trump's war on Iran, smart and agile is better than overwhelmingly powerful.

AFL is war, break the game down into a set of small independant battles to win, and you are well on the way to victory in any circumstance!

"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #46
I watched the replay this morning, we played well in moments but were too comfortable about it, like we could pick and choose when to go hard. It's a horrible mindset to have, it sets you up for failure on the biggest stage, we'll be the team who could have if we had chosen to!

Back in our glory days, the era of Dominator and Doull, we never let up, we went harder at it for longer than the opposition and set a standard that intimidated opposition. It become a meme in our 3rd quarters, and ear worm for the opposition that they could not escape. But make no mistake about it, it was driven by the likes of Dominator and Doull, who hit the playing surface every week wishing to obliterate the opponents, not just have a well-managed win.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #47
I think the current setup is working because the players are less mentally burdened, and because Fraser the Amazer has taken 2.5-3 quarter good efforts and turned them into 3.5-4 quarter efforts. He deserves credit for that. However it's completely inaccurate to think that one individual (an inexperience caretaker coach no less) can take an entire organization from zero to hero in seven days, and keep it going for 6 weeks. There's no way that can be true. A football club is massive, with significant inertia and investment in training loads and methods, personnel, game style etc.

I still have my doubts about Wright and Davies.

Re: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #48
I watched the replay this morning, we played well in moments but were too comfortable about it, like we could pick and choose when to go hard. It's a horrible mindset to have, it sets you up for failure on the biggest stage, we'll be the team who could have if we had chosen to!

That probably expresses what I was thinking a I was watching.
It was like we knew we had their measure and just needed to tighten the screws every now and then to keep them in their place.

It one of the reasons I wouldn't be too perturbed if we had a 'down' match just to shock them back into the mindset to keep the pressure on.

As for Fraser....we need to play out the season.
See how he responds in the tough games or losses that may still be ahead of us.
If at the end he decides to put himself through the process both he and the club will have a much better idea if he really is our guy.

Don't take any notice of the 'not ready' comments either from the club or Fraser.
In fact don't' take a lot of notice of any comments around the change.
Everything is very vague..."we haven't changed a lot"
"Simplified" seems to be a buzzword.
I'm not even sure what that means.



Re: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #49
I watched the replay this morning, we played well in moments but were too comfortable about it, like we could pick and choose when to go hard. It's a horrible mindset to have, it sets you up for failure on the biggest stage, we'll be the team who could have if we had chosen to!

Back in our glory days, the era of Dominator and Doull, we never let up, we went harder at it for longer than the opposition and set a standard that intimidated opposition. It become a meme in our 3rd quarters, and ear worm for the opposition that they could not escape. But make no mistake about it, it was driven by the likes of Dominator and Doull, who hit the playing surface every week wishing to obliterate the opponents, not just have a well-managed win.
Different game then - much more stop and start.  These days there is relentless pressure of fatigue associated with the game style.

Re: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #50
I think the current setup is working because the players are less mentally burdened, and because Fraser the Amazer has taken 2.5-3 quarter good efforts and turned them into 3.5-4 quarter efforts. He deserves credit for that. However it's completely inaccurate to think that one individual (an inexperience caretaker coach no less) can take an entire organization from zero to hero in seven days, and keep it going for 6 weeks. There's no way that can be true. A football club is massive, with significant inertia and investment in training loads and methods, personnel, game style etc.

I still have my doubts about Wright and Davies.
Everyone I have spoken to with connections to AFL clubs and in particular Coll and Haw, tell me Wright is a jet and knows what he is doing and his track record is proven. The fact he was hand picked and anointed by Cook is enough for me.
I have no intel on Davies but from what I have seen and heard from him, he seems knowledgeable and  impressive.
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time
2025-Carlton can win the 2025 AFL Premiership

Re: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #51
Everyone I have spoken to with connections to AFL clubs and in particular Coll and Haw, tell me Wright is a jet and knows what he is doing and his track record is proven. The fact he was hand picked and anointed by Cook is enough for me.
I have no intel on Davies but from what I have seen and heard from him, he seems knowledgeable and  impressive.

I hope that's true. We need the whole club firing on all cylinders if we're going to be consistently successful.

Re: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #52
Great team effort - everyone contributed in some way - although I paid about scant attention after the long break.

Pleasing that we won every quarter and that when WC got to ~20 points in the third, we improved and fought back.  Amazing what happens when there is confidence within the team.

Don't get too carried away - while you can only beat your opposition, it was only WC - although nice to have a 9 goal win.

Re: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #53
I wonder how we sit now on that 'quarters won' table that was floating around before we were good.

Re: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #54
I think the current setup is working because the players are less mentally burdened, and because Fraser the Amazer has taken 2.5-3 quarter good efforts and turned them into 3.5-4 quarter efforts. He deserves credit for that. However it's completely inaccurate to think that one individual (an inexperience caretaker coach no less) can take an entire organization from zero to hero in seven days, and keep it going for 6 weeks. There's no way that can be true. A football club is massive, with significant inertia and investment in training loads and methods, personnel, game style etc.

I still have my doubts about Wright and Davies.
Everyone I have spoken to with connections to AFL clubs and in particular Coll and Haw, tell me Wright is a jet and knows what he is doing and his track record is proven. The fact he was hand picked and anointed by Cook is enough for me.
I have no intel on Davies but from what I have seen and heard from him, he seems knowledgeable and  impressive.

Wright may have been a good list manager but he’s never been a CEO before.  There’s also the matter of him walking away from Collingwood because he had issues with Kelly.  That may well be a positive but he doesn’t have a track record as a CEO or long term football administrator.  He may well be brilliant, and I hope he is, but the jury is still out.

I have a lot more faith in Davies who does have a proven track record as footy manager.
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball

Re: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #55
I wonder how we sit now on that 'quarters won' table that was floating around before we were good.

https://afltables.com/afl/seas/2026sr.html

Win / loss by quarter :

1st q :6-8
2nd q : 7-7
3rd q : 6-8
4th q : 8-6

Total W/L : 27-29

Interesting that 4th quarters are our best.

Re: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #56
I wonder how we sit now on that 'quarters won' table that was floating around before we were good.
It's an interesting concept, and perhaps a lack of understanding about how stats work.

Technically, there is nothing stopping a team losing 75% of quarters but still winning more games than they lose, or inversely a team winning the majority of quarters and still losing more than they win like Carlton. Because the bare stat represents nothing in regard to magnitude, it measures a swing in direction, not the magnitude of the swing. Scrap over the line in a quarter by 1pt, is the same stat as winning a quarter by 10 goals.

A great comparison might be the Filth from a season or two back, when they scrapped over the line in the last quarter of more than half the wins they had.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #57
Everyone I have spoken to with connections to AFL clubs and in particular Coll and Haw, tell me Wright is a jet and knows what he is doing and his track record is proven. The fact he was hand picked and anointed by Cook is enough for me.
I have no intel on Davies but from what I have seen and heard from him, he seems knowledgeable and  impressive.

Wright may have been a good list manager but he’s never been a CEO before.  There’s also the matter of him walking away from Collingwood because he had issues with Kelly.  That may well be a positive but he doesn’t have a track record as a CEO or long term football administrator.  He may well be brilliant, and I hope he is, but the jury is still out.

I have a lot more faith in Davies who does have a proven track record as footy manager.

He was the Head of Football at Hawthorn and General Manager of football at Collingwood when they won a flag...so he does have a little more to his resume than just List Manager.

But this is probably his biggest task.
And will be the biggest feather in his cap if he can make Carlton a truly successful club again.

And Davies strikes me as the ideal "Luca Brasi".

 

Re: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #58
I wonder how we sit now on that 'quarters won' table that was floating around before we were good.
It's an interesting concept, and perhaps a lack of understanding about how stats work.

Technically, there is nothing stopping a team losing 75% of quarters but still winning more games than they lose, or inversely a team winning the majority of quarters and still losing more than they win like Carlton. Because the bare stat represents nothing in regard to magnitude, it measures a swing in direction, not the magnitude of the swing. Scrap over the line in a quarter by 1pt, is the same stat as winning a quarter by 10 goals.

A great comparison might be the Filth from a season or two back, when they scrapped over the line in the last quarter of more than half the wins they had.

Winning quarters is not something to hang your hat on...
But what it does show is that a club may not be winning games but are competitive for large periods of games.

In our case before the change of coach it was being used to show that our problems weren't necessarily over a total game, and we played really good, sometimes dominating, football for large sections of our games.

Our issues were more about lapses and the inability to stem them, and then come back and recover leads we had given up.

1-8 may have been the results we were getting (and that's really all that counts in the big scheme of things) but our fate was usually determined by one bad quarter.

We lost to the Lions by less than 2 goals (but won the last two quarters) and Collingwood by less than a goal (won two of the quarters)
Against Melbourne we dominated for the entire first half. (7-4 to 1-6) at half time.

There has been a significant change.
These lapses in our game aren't occurring to the same extent and we seem to be able to stem them and consolidate.

Re: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #59
The win/loss column just shows who is in front at the end of the game.
The quarters won/lost columns show how competitive you are in the games.

People fixating on the first and neglecting the 2nd is a recipe for disaster.