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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast
Last post by LP -
Quote from: Lods – on
I wonder how we sit now on that 'quarters won' table that was floating around before we were good.
It's an interesting concept, and perhaps a lack of understanding about how stats work.

Technically, there is nothing stopping a team losing 75% of quarters but still winning more games than they lose, or inversely a team winning the majority of quarters and still losing more than they win like Carlton. Because the bare stat represents nothing in regard to magnitude, it measures a swing in direction, not the magnitude of the swing. Scrap over the line in a quarter by 1pt, is the same stat as winning a quarter by 10 goals.

A great comparison might be the Filth from a season or two back, when they scrapped over the line in the last quarter of more than half the wins they had.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast
Last post by DJC -
Quote from: Gointocarlton – on
Quote from: PaulP – on
I think the current setup is working because the players are less mentally burdened, and because Fraser the Amazer has taken 2.5-3 quarter good efforts and turned them into 3.5-4 quarter efforts. He deserves credit for that. However it's completely inaccurate to think that one individual (an inexperience caretaker coach no less) can take an entire organization from zero to hero in seven days, and keep it going for 6 weeks. There's no way that can be true. A football club is massive, with significant inertia and investment in training loads and methods, personnel, game style etc.

I still have my doubts about Wright and Davies.
Everyone I have spoken to with connections to AFL clubs and in particular Coll and Haw, tell me Wright is a jet and knows what he is doing and his track record is proven. The fact he was hand picked and anointed by Cook is enough for me.
I have no intel on Davies but from what I have seen and heard from him, he seems knowledgeable and  impressive.

Wright may have been a good list manager but he’s never been a CEO before.  There’s also the matter of him walking away from Collingwood because he had issues with Kelly.  That may well be a positive but he doesn’t have a track record as a CEO or long term football administrator.  He may well be brilliant, and I hope he is, but the jury is still out.

I have a lot more faith in Davies who does have a proven track record as footy manager.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast
Last post by dodge -
Great team effort - everyone contributed in some way - although I paid about scant attention after the long break.

Pleasing that we won every quarter and that when WC got to ~20 points in the third, we improved and fought back.  Amazing what happens when there is confidence within the team.

Don't get too carried away - while you can only beat your opposition, it was only WC - although nice to have a 9 goal win.
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Robert Heatley Stand / VFL 2026 Rd 15: Carlton vs Richmond at Carlton
Last post by crashlander -
This match is an away game for us, due to Richmond's 'upgrade' of Punt Rd. It starts at 12:05 on Saturday (4th July).
Richmond are 20th and were very poor against Collingwood. We are 14th and showed something against Werribee. But that does not guarantee that we win.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast
Last post by PaulP -
Quote from: Gointocarlton – on
Everyone I have spoken to with connections to AFL clubs and in particular Coll and Haw, tell me Wright is a jet and knows what he is doing and his track record is proven. The fact he was hand picked and anointed by Cook is enough for me.
I have no intel on Davies but from what I have seen and heard from him, he seems knowledgeable and  impressive.

I hope that's true. We need the whole club firing on all cylinders if we're going to be consistently successful.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast
Last post by Gointocarlton -
Quote from: PaulP – on
I think the current setup is working because the players are less mentally burdened, and because Fraser the Amazer has taken 2.5-3 quarter good efforts and turned them into 3.5-4 quarter efforts. He deserves credit for that. However it's completely inaccurate to think that one individual (an inexperience caretaker coach no less) can take an entire organization from zero to hero in seven days, and keep it going for 6 weeks. There's no way that can be true. A football club is massive, with significant inertia and investment in training loads and methods, personnel, game style etc.

I still have my doubts about Wright and Davies.
Everyone I have spoken to with connections to AFL clubs and in particular Coll and Haw, tell me Wright is a jet and knows what he is doing and his track record is proven. The fact he was hand picked and anointed by Cook is enough for me.
I have no intel on Davies but from what I have seen and heard from him, he seems knowledgeable and  impressive.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: VFL Rd 14 2026 Carlton vs Werribee
Last post by crashlander -
Just finished watching the replay. Very frustrating, but a significant improvement over the last couple of weeks. It seemed to mean a bit more to a few of ours. Not enough, though. Werribee always had the belief and it paid off in the end.

[1] Clearances: we won on the day, but were smashed early and late. Still, Werribee consider clearances their strength and we beat them on the day.
However, did we get much out of them? No, I can't say they did. We really struggled to get the ball forward in a meaningful manner.

[2] Rucks: I mentioned earlier in this thread that Riley tends to get a lot of taps, but hasn't done much around the ground this year. He must have read that, as he was much better around the ground. I couldn't say he was good, but he was improved.
15 disposals, 5 marks and 6 tackles is a positive. Unfortunately, his kicking was totally faecal.
He was probably beaten on the day by Kuol Mun, but Kuol Mun actually leads the VFL in taps. So, Riley wasn't bad at all.
O'Keefe, on the other hand, had a lot of trouble influencing the game. He kicked 2 points from 4 shots, and didn't have a possession to half time. We saw some leap in the ruck, but not enough.

[3] We had a lot more of the ball, but our chains of handball only worked a handful of times. When we were good, we were excellent, but we weren't fluent very often.
On the other hand, they had 20 frees, while we struggled to get 10. Holding the ball didn't exist; no rewards for tackling at all. Some of the not paid frees were ... dreadful.

[4] Some of our players:
(a) Flynn Young: when he does something, it looks good, but he didn't do anywhere near enough. Mind you, we didn't make it easy for him. We moved the ball slowly far too often and couldn't hit anyone on the lead. Young does his best work when he plays like Brad Pearce.
(b) Lewis Young: Lewis had 22 possessions and 10 marks, but his opponents kept kicking goals on him. Take those goals out and we win comfortably. Not looking close to a senior recall unless some disaster happens.
(c) Matt Duffy: 3 possessions and no marks, he really didn't impact the game at all. Playing forward doesn't appear to be his thing. But he was moving very poorly, 'lumbering' was probably the best description. For a guy whose strength was his run, it bodes terribly. I can't see him with us next year.
(d) Lachie Fogarty: 27 possessions, 8 clearances and 8 tackles sounds really good, but he wasn't that effective. God knows he tries hard, but we needed more than that.
(e) Lucas Camporeale: Lucas started slowly, but worked his way into the game. He is clearly a long way from his best at the moment, as his run and carry just wasn't there, but he did manage to get the ball. Hopefully, he can continue his improvement each week: 28 disposals, 2 tackles and 2 clearances.
(f) Campbell Chesser: It was an 'almost' game from Chesser. He got the ball 23 times, which is an improvement, and he showed some grit and determination, but his disposals generally didn't hurt. His fumble in the last quarter changed the match, but he wasn't alone in that.
(g) Darcy Tucker: Tucker has been injured for much of the year and he ran out of gas somewhat, but he did show some leadership. 28 possessions, 8 clearances and 2 tackles was a good return.
(h) Ollie Hollands: 30 possessions, 7 tackles and 5 clearances was a good day at the office, but his disposals didn't hurt as much as they could have. Still, you could see that he wanted the pill.
(i) Harry Charleson: 23 possessions, 3 clearances and 1 tackle, but he was actually one of our best. His opponents did nothing, while he was significant. He smothered his brother's shot at goal and kept his opponent quiet.
(j) Darcy Hogg: Darcy had a shocker. He managed 16 possessions but did nothing in the centre, turned the ball over and made less than perfect decisions. Probably the worst game he's played for 2 seasons.
(k) Ashton Moir: Moir was almost invisible in defence, but much better in attack. He kicked 2 good goals and could well have kicked another.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast
Last post by RiverRat -
Quote from: LP – on
I watched the replay this morning, we played well in moments but were too comfortable about it, like we could pick and choose when to go hard. It's a horrible mindset to have, it sets you up for failure on the biggest stage, we'll be the team who could have if we had chosen to!

Back in our glory days, the era of Dominator and Doull, we never let up, we went harder at it for longer than the opposition and set a standard that intimidated opposition. It become a meme in our 3rd quarters, and ear worm for the opposition that they could not escape. But make no mistake about it, it was driven by the likes of Dominator and Doull, who hit the playing surface every week wishing to obliterate the opponents, not just have a well-managed win.
Different game then - much more stop and start.  These days there is relentless pressure of fatigue associated with the game style.