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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Last post by ElwoodBlues1 -
Im prepared to give the Campo's another 2 years, Im probably old school with father and sons and want to give them every opportunity as there is that connection to success Im clinging onto plus I like that Ashcroft/Daicos type of situation with two brothers in the team.
Kruds analysis of their pros and cons is fairly accurate and they probably lack in the areas we need them to be extra special in like disposal by foot and leg speed but I think both are footballers rather than athletes and in Bens case his blue collar approach will compliment the more silky Walker and Smith and he would be a good backup for Walsh moving forward.
Cripps and Hewett are in the back end of their careers and its going to be tougher finding replacements given Tassie will dominate the future drafts for a while.
Lucas was ok in his debut imo and showed something and its been disappointing seeing him not kick on. Having a leftie on the wing reminds me of Amon and D'Ambrosio at Hawthorn and Gulden at the Swans and there is something I just like about Lefties delivering the ball forward but he needs opportunity at senior level to improve his disposal under pressure.
re: Lord....like what he offers as I have said previously, 2 way player who competes like he cares.
re: Wilson....dont think he is senior level at this stage and I would probably have him in the delist basket at seasons end.
2
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Last post by kruddler -
Its not the only factor, but its one that you ignore at your own peril and will ultimately give you a better judgement than your emotional eye.

I've said i don't think they will make it and i've said its because i don't see anything 'outstanding' about them.
Shifter Sheahan always says you need to be elite at 'something'....and i don't see it.
This is also backed up by pre-draft rankings.
This is also backed up by draft day picks.
That is, 18 teams all had similar thinking.....that there was not anything to get too excited about with them.

Are they elite ball users?
Are they elite pace, endurance, agility?
Are they elite thinkers?
I can't say yes to any of them.

IMO, they are slower than average. Less skilled than average and do nothing elite to compensate.

Now there are plenty of those types who end up making it. Someone like Fraser Brown for example has similar traits and areas of need.....but he also had an elite tenacity and desire to compete that helped him out, never more highlighted by 'that tackle' where he simply would not be outdone.

So with that assessment, by the experts, the 18 clubs, statistical representation and by myself....expectations are low.
Is that definitive? No.
Is that negative? I don't think so.
Does that mean i don't hope and want the best for them? No, i hope they succeed as much as anyone.

However, when i'm picking my 2030 team and trying to find areas of need that need filling.
Its not in the middle with Jagga, Walker, Walsh......but it might be with those underneath them and on the wings.....Lord, Campos x2, Wilson etc
They are not 'locks'. Until then, keep drafting.
3
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: General Discussions
Last post by Gointocarlton -
Quote from: LP – on
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on

Its like going to the dentist and finding you need root canal treatment and then subsequently a Crown, looking at $4K to get the job done and 6 hours total in the dentist chair or the alternative have an extraction for $150 in 15 mins.....how many people would stop and think I might need that tooth to be able to chew and eat my food or how many will just look at the price?
A bloke at work just lost a cousin, flew to Thailand for one of those "holiday and dental" deals and never returned, the family had to fork out to repatriate the body and there was no refund, insurance invalid, dough done life gone for what looked like a 50% discount. Some might say he was lucky, there are many who return disfigured and end up paying fortunes at this end to have it fixed, if they can!

Another chap I know has decided the discount route, option one was local $20k several visits over a couple of months, implant job done for life he's 60 already. Options two was $2k, pull the lot, wait 6 months for the gums to decide to shrink and eventually have a false set or bridge for a fraction of the cost, what's 6 months of gumming a steak between friends? He's living on soup and looks like Ms McGillicuddy, and planning to have the falsies done in Bali, of course!


Mrs McGillacutty
4
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments
Last post by Gointocarlton -
Quote from: LP – on
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on

Yep Kennett wants the Libs/Nats teaming up with One Nation to oust Labor if that happens and it works then I reckon it's a forgone conclusion it will happen at Federal level .
They'll be fragmented with nutters having a controlling vote!

Bigger nutters than Labours comrades the CMFEU/OMCG's? Doubt it.
5
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Last post by Lods -
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: Lods – on


No, that's a pretty negative view.
You're betting against youngsters.
You're betting against your club succeeding.
Many of them will succeed and be really good contributors to any future success.
That's a positive view.

Which ones and how many are anyone's guess?
If you make predictions on individuals at age 19 and 20 there's a fair chance some of them will come back and bite you on the backside.

That's the nature of football, which has a habit of taking no notice of statistics.
You may be able to point to trends...but it's no guarantee of the individual aberrations.

Lods, with all due respect, you are not getting it.

I'm not talking about our club. Our players.
I'm talking about the entire AFL.
Thats not negative, its facts.
The entire points system is based off of those same ideas.

The chance of pick x being better than pick y and/or pick z is highlighted via a lookup table.
Thats statistics. It doesn't take into account a players name or the club they play for, it is sheer numbers.
Thats not negative. Thats reality.

Its simply a more advanced game of guessing what number will be rolled on a die.
Any number COULD come up at any time.
Long term, there is clear trends and that is that the numbers will come up relatively evenly.
The die doesn't care if #6 is your favourite number.
The die doesn't care if #6 worked well for you previously.
Long term, the results will be the results and they are predictable.
The short term is unpredictable, but will always work towards the same trend.....bucking that trend is the unlikely.

With all due respect Kruds
You've moved from individual player assessment to an argument over stats
Don't judge on the likelihood of a statistic coming to fruition
Assess the players, not just in their initial games, but over a body of work.

I understand the statistics
A pick 3 is a better chance of playing two hundred games than a pick 50
But if statistics were the only factor in football there would be no tipping competitions.
Results would follow the stats
Football is an unpredictable game, possibly one of the most unpredicatble in the world due to the shape of the ball and conrolling it, and a whole range of factors like momentum changes...just look at last weekends results.

But you're not relying on stats are you?
You're identifying individual players and saying you don't think they'll make it.
Is that based solely on where they were picked up?
Surely it's a bit deeper than that.

Lucas
Ben
Cooper
Billy

Will they all fail?
Will they all make it?
Will it be a half-half
Who knows.
I'd rather we just concentrate on their individual journey's and enjoy watching their development.
If they don't improve we can wait for the next batch.

But "I don't think they'll make it" ...is just a guess, one that once entrenched is hard to shake, and leads to a bias where every bit of bad play is highlighted in a match thread and every bit of good play is ignored.



6
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments
Last post by ElwoodBlues1 -
Quote from: LP – on
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on

Yep Kennett wants the Libs/Nats teaming up with One Nation to oust Labor if that happens and it works then I reckon it's a forgone conclusion it will happen at Federal level .
They'll be fragmented with nutters having a controlling vote!

True, Labor have had to manage/massage the Greens/Independents to pass policy through the Senate and its a messy business dealing with Larissa Waters and crew so how the Libs would deal with Pauline, Barnaby and their inflexible extreme right wing thinking/nutty high school political theories I dont know.
Its a mess when you have an opposition that cant make the Government accountable and improve their performance, having competent pollies on both side of politics makes the country run better and lifts performance but we are a long way from that happening and when you couple that with some of the madness going on overseas its a real worry looking forward.
Imagine the new Minister for Foreign Affairs Pauline Hanson talking to Donald Trump about Foreign Policy????
7
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: General Discussions
Last post by LP -
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on

Its like going to the dentist and finding you need root canal treatment and then subsequently a Crown, looking at $4K to get the job done and 6 hours total in the dentist chair or the alternative have an extraction for $150 in 15 mins.....how many people would stop and think I might need that tooth to be able to chew and eat my food or how many will just look at the price?
A bloke at work just lost a cousin, flew to Thailand for one of those "holiday and dental" deals and never returned, the family had to fork out to repatriate the body and there was no refund, insurance invalid, dough done life gone for what looked like a 50% discount. Some might say he was lucky, there are many who return disfigured and end up paying fortunes at this end to have it fixed, if they can!

Another chap I know has decided the discount route, option one was local $20k several visits over a couple of months, implant job done for life he's 60 already. Options two was $2k, pull the lot, wait 6 months for the gums to decide to shrink and eventually have a false set or bridge for a fraction of the cost, what's 6 months of gumming a steak between friends? He's living on soup and looks like Ms McGillicuddy, and planning to have the falsies done in Bali, of course!

8
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: General Discussions
Last post by ElwoodBlues1 -
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: Professer E – on
I make and sell tools so this is what I know.
Just to get an "Australian made" sticker takes a vetting process and ain't cheap. 

Buying local sounds great in principle but the reality is...if the local hardware store sells a locally made shovel for $70 and Asian made rubbish for $50, people buy the cheaper option everytime. Price wins out every time.
Bunnings has the ultimate business model....sell Asian-made junk at multiple, still cheap price points....makes that rubbish 50 shovel look like a premium product over the $20 one. Both are still cheaper than locally made.   Meanwhile local industry continues to be outsourced under free trade agreements.
Price always wins.  Simple consumer economics.

So why do i buy milwaukee tools if ozito is cheaper?

It is NOT always about price.

Educate people as to what short term benefits ultimately end up looking like.
You know the difference in the quality, and Joe Average who just wants to drill three holes in a piece of wood or drive his kids to school isnt going to care if its a Milwaukee or Hilti Power Drill or an Ozito or if its a Lexus or a Haval Jolion as long as it gets the job done for the least amount of money. Longevity in Products isnt as important as when we were younger and you hung onto tools for life and cars for 20 years etc.
You can try educating people but most want to know how much its costs not what it does or how long it will last, not everyone you run into is educated on a variety of subjects, can read and write well and a lot are borderline ignorant but you rarely find anyone who cant count money or work out whats expensive and what isnt.
Its like going to the dentist and finding you need root canal treatment and then subsequently a Crown, looking at $4K to get the job done and 6 hours total in the dentist chair or the alternative have an extraction for $150 in 15 mins.....how many people would stop and think I might need that tooth to be able to chew and eat my food or how many will just look at the price?
 
10
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Last post by kruddler -
Quote from: Lods – on
Quote from: kruddler – on
Nobody has said they can't make it.

Everybody hopes they do.

If you are a betting man, you bet against them based on where they were drafted. You can do that for every player drafted at a similar spot.
Clearly not all of them will fail, but more of them will fail rather than make it.
Thats the simple truth.

Thats not positive.
Thats not negative.
Thats simple statistics.

No, that's a pretty negative view.
You're betting against youngsters.
You're betting against your club succeeding.
Many of them will succeed and be really good contributors to any future success.
That's a positive view.

Which ones and how many are anyone's guess?
If you make predictions on individuals at age 19 and 20 there's a fair chance some of them will come back and bite you on the backside.

That's the nature of football, which has a habit of taking no notice of statistics.
You may be able to point to trends...but it's no guarantee of the individual aberrations.

Lods, with all due respect, you are not getting it.

I'm not talking about our club. Our players.
I'm talking about the entire AFL.
Thats not negative, its facts.
The entire points system is based off of those same ideas.

The chance of pick x being better than pick y and/or pick z is highlighted via a lookup table.
Thats statistics. It doesn't take into account a players name or the club they play for, it is sheer numbers.
Thats not negative. Thats reality.

Its simply a more advanced game of guessing what number will be rolled on a die.
Any number COULD come up at any time.
Long term, there is clear trends and that is that the numbers will come up relatively evenly.
The die doesn't care if #6 is your favourite number.
The die doesn't care if #6 worked well for you previously.
Long term, the results will be the results and they are predictable.
The short term is unpredictable, but will always work towards the same trend.....bucking that trend is the unlikely.