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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pick our team in parts - Part 4 - 5 on the bench
Last post by DJC -
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: DJC – on
Then there's the focus our list managers had on better ball users.  Fortunately, they know what they're doing :)
Talk about opinion with no facts.

Especially when you compare this with Sydney, who DO know what they are doing as they are one of the most successful teams of the past 2 decades.

The thing is that I'm not blinded by being self-opinionated about list management.  I accept that Austin, Agresta and their team know a hell of a lot more about list management than I do, and I know that two experienced operators in Wright and Davies have endorsed our list management strategy.  That's good enough for me.

Yes, Sydney has been a very successful club ... under Roos and Longmire.  When you consider their A-graders and the depth of their list, missing out on the eight in 2025 is inexplicable.  I wonder what's changed; it wouldn't be the coach who got hot flushes at the thought of Charlie in red and white?
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pick our team in parts - Part 4 - 5 on the bench
Last post by Lods -
Quote from: kruddler – on
You see my point in that there are issues with the 'improvement' theory as it ignores people going backwards and injuries. No 'pro improvement' argument or 'cover' argument takes that into account....or severly underestimates its impact.
Look at what it did to our team this year and last.

There's the logic you're looking for though.

The improvement theory is dependent on more postives 'coming in than going out'
Nobody would possibly suggest we won't be hit by injuries in 2026.
Some unexpected
Some long term.

The thing is to improve, we must have more positves coming in to combat the talent going out, if we are to be better in 2026 than 2025.
But here's the 'key'
We don't have to match TDK, Curnow and Silvagni at their best.
We only have to cover their 2025 output to be better.
At their best it's a huge challenge
At their 2025 best, especially Curnow, the challenge is not as great.

The reason for a bit of positivity?
The injury sutuation the last two years has been something else, and in 2025 it was exacerbated by a range of other challenges (mental health, division, players being offered huge money elsewhere.)
The injury situation matched some of our more critical times over the last 2025 years (2002, 2014)
It's possible we'll be hit hard again, but to have that type of turmoil three years in a row would suggest it's probably nothing within the range of mortals to fix, but rather a job for a 'witch doctor'.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pick our team in parts - Part 4 - 5 on the bench
Last post by DJC -
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: PaulP – on


I guess so. I am quite clearly a Charlie fan, but I can't quite follow the Swans' logic. They already have a trio of decent tall forwards, and having quickly looked at AFL Tables, they had less I50's, Marks I50, clearances, and tackles than us in 2025 (a few other statistical categories were also in our favour). This is undoubtedly a cursory, superficial examination, but I can't help feeling their bigger issues lie elsewhere, and getting Charlie was just talent for the sake of talent, and they paid a lot to get him IMO. Maybe they will offload some of the others next season.

See what you've done there is highlighted our issues, not there's.
Despite swans having less of what you described, they also scored more points than us. You've highlighted or inability to hit a target inside 50 and take a mark inside 50 (and thus score)

Given the change of charlie, that gap may increase

I think that the opposite will be true.  Charlie kicked 32.27 and heaps more that didn't register.  Those misses all provide the opposition with rebound opportunities that put our team defence under pressure.  Having forwards that make the most of their opportunities will improve our scoring and reduce the pressure on our defence. 

For comparison, Harry kicked 22.10 last season, Hayward kicked 29.10 and Ainsworth managed 23.14.

Then there's the focus our list managers had on better ball users.  Fortunately, they know what they're doing  :)



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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pick our team in parts - Part 4 - 5 on the bench
Last post by kruddler -
Quote from: Lods – on
Quote from: kruddler – on
Lods...
When asked why we will improve by those who think we can, everyone is fit, everyone is their best version of themselves. Everyone who was good last year remains good. Everyone who had potential fulfils it. No key players will get injured.

That's the issue i have.

Reality is closer to what you said there and what I've been saying. You cant say we'll be better because Newman well be back. We might be better, but he might be worse... if he is back at all.
Rinse repeat for anyone on our list.

I think what you're seeing though is posters are making the argument for a positive outcome...but by no means completely oblivious to the problems that may lie ahead.
Because they don't mention it doesn't mean they don't recognise them.

Much the same as the other side are presenting reasons why we will struggle but giving much less emphasis to any positives

We all realise we'll need luck with injury and luck in general.

The problem is there are too many different posters who are making slightly different arguments. so you say people ar enot saying this...maybe, but a person is at least.

Its not worth going over everything from every poster.

You see my point in that there are issues with the 'improvement' theory as it ignores people going backwards and injuries. No 'pro improvement' argument or 'cover' argument takes that into account....or severly underestimates its impact.
Look at what it did to our team this year and last.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pick our team in parts - Part 4 - 5 on the bench
Last post by Lods -
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: PaulP – on


I guess so. I am quite clearly a Charlie fan, but I can't quite follow the Swans' logic. They already have a trio of decent tall forwards, and having quickly looked at AFL Tables, they had less I50's, Marks I50, clearances, and tackles than us in 2025 (a few other statistical categories were also in our favour). This is undoubtedly a cursory, superficial examination, but I can't help feeling their bigger issues lie elsewhere, and getting Charlie was just talent for the sake of talent, and they paid a lot to get him IMO. Maybe they will offload some of the others next season.

See what you've done there is highlighted our issues, not there's.
Despite swans having less of what you described, they also scored more points than us. You've highlighted or inability to hit a target inside 50 and take a mark inside 50 (and thus score)

Given the change of charlie, that gap may increase

On the other hand we've added to our options for scoring. Whether our efficiency into, and while in the 50 will also improve is yet to be determined.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pick our team in parts - Part 4 - 5 on the bench
Last post by Lods -
Quote from: kruddler – on
Lods...
When asked why we will improve by those who think we can, everyone is fit, everyone is their best version of themselves. Everyone who was good last year remains good. Everyone who had potential fulfils it. No key players will get injured.

That's the issue i have.

Reality is closer to what you said there and what I've been saying. You cant say we'll be better because Newman well be back. We might be better, but he might be worse... if he is back at all.
Rinse repeat for anyone on our list.

I think what you're seeing though is posters are making the argument for a positive outcome...but by no means completely oblivious to the problems that may lie ahead.
Because they don't mention it doesn't mean they don't recognise them.

Much the same as the other side are presenting reasons why we will struggle but giving much less emphasis to any positives

We all realise we'll need luck with injury and luck in general.

8
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pick our team in parts - Part 4 - 5 on the bench
Last post by kruddler -
Lods...
When asked why we will improve by those who think we can, everyone is fit, everyone is their best version of themselves. Everyone who was good last year remains good. Everyone who had potential fulfils it. No key players will get injured.

That's the issue i have.

Reality is closer to what you said there and what I've been saying. You cant say we'll be better because Newman well be back. We might be better, but he might be worse... if he is back at all.
Rinse repeat for anyone on our list.
9
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pick our team in parts - Part 4 - 5 on the bench
Last post by kruddler -
Quote from: PaulP – on
Quote from: DJC – on
Amartey can play in defence, and he missed most of last season with an adductor strain.  As we know with Jack Silvagni, adductor strains can be chronic, even after surgery.

I guess so. I am quite clearly a Charlie fan, but I can't quite follow the Swans' logic. They already have a trio of decent tall forwards, and having quickly looked at AFL Tables, they had less I50's, Marks I50, clearances, and tackles than us in 2025 (a few other statistical categories were also in our favour). This is undoubtedly a cursory, superficial examination, but I can't help feeling their bigger issues lie elsewhere, and getting Charlie was just talent for the sake of talent, and they paid a lot to get him IMO. Maybe they will offload some of the others next season.

See what you've done there is highlighted our issues, not there's.
Despite swans having less of what you described, they also scored more points than us. You've highlighted or inability to hit a target inside 50 and take a mark inside 50 (and thus score)

Given the change of charlie, that gap may increase
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pick our team in parts - Part 4 - 5 on the bench
Last post by Lods -
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: madbluboy – on
I get the positive thinking
If Walsh us fit
If Cripps gets back to 24 form
If Newman is still the same
If Harry has no issues
If Acres can get back to his best
If Dean can play a role straight away
If Jagga can have an immediate impact
If Florent can play like he did before the big bad Cox got to him.
If Kemp can stay fit.
If motlop and Ainsworth can take the next step.
If Cottrell doesn't get injured.

Lots of ifs.

Meanwhile Gulden thinks charlie is just like Buddy.

Funny how most of that list had an injury last year and everyone is positive about them.
The 3 that left, who all had injuries as well are never going to get back to the same standard though.
This is the 'logic' that others are failing to see.


Here's the thing though.
Are people actually saying that or is that the swing you're putting on it from the comments?
It's not 'logic' if it's not real.
I certainly don't believe it.
And any comment along those lines would only have been made in the context of their 2025 output and limitations.

Charlie had an interrupted pre-season last year...I suspect his knee will continue to give him some trouble but if he can have a good pre-season and stay relatively fit he's still capable of kicking a lot of goals. I reckon Sydney will suit him.
Tom is just getting to the sweet spot in his career. If he can deliver on that potential we may see waht we've always hoped he'd provide for us.
Jack is a concern because he has a history of missing chunks of a season and he'll also be weighed down a bit (as I suspect he has been this year) by external factors.

On the other side of the coin...
Newman being older may find that his time off has impacted a lot more than someone like Jagga.
Acres is held together by sticky tape.
Walsh is a key player for us but I can think of at least two occasions when he was playing super football only to be injured...If he can have a fully fit season it will be a big boost....But, will he be distracted, as I suspect Tom was at times, by big offers from other clubs.
We have to accept that wear and tear will eventually catch up with Cripps and a lot will depend on the progress of our young mids like Lord and Ben Camporeale
Hayward, Ainsworth, Florent, Chesser, Reidy...how many games will they play. How will they gel.
Are Dean and Ison ready to go or will it take some time for them to be given an opportunity.
And what of the coach...if things go wrong in the first half of the season we could be changing things up all over again

You see the whole thing is up in the air and there are reasons for both optimism and pessimism
We don't know how it will play out, but making definite predictions is really silly.
I know which forecast is the brighter one, but I don't think anyone is unaware that next year may present its own significant challenges.