Carlton Supporters Club

It is really worth listening to Richard Willingham on ABC radio.  He provides an objective analysis of each party's policy releases, why they've chosen that tack, and whether they're getting any traction.

Jess Wilson is campaigning well and the most recent polls give her the lead.  However, it seems that there's no uniform swing to the L-NP from the ALP and we should see a patchwork of results with some electorates sticking with the ALP, some being won by the L-NP and a couple going to PHON.  I'm sticking with my prediction of a minority government, probably L-NP, and a hostile upper house.

Quote from: Lods – on October 28, 2026, 07:35:55 am

I suspect you wouldn't see a lot of difference in One Nation 'electoral' support between Victoria, and a place like Queensland.
It'd be pretty much the same around that low 20% mark.

That doesn't mean Northerners aren't more conservative/right leaning in their political views.
But those views are probably addressed by more 'right leaning' LNP and Independent candidates in the North.

Why switch to ON when you already have some who basically shares your political and social views.

The 'electoral' problem One Nation faces is that their support is patchy.
It will be particularly strong in some areas....up over 30% perhaps.
But in  others they will struggle around 10-15%
That's why the main focus in Victoria probably won't be the overall level of support for ON, but how it translates into actual seats in the parliament.

Maybe.

Its hardly statistically significant, but there are a few random different facebook groups (1000's on each) that sometimes stray into political debates. I would say 90% of the time One nation gets a push, its started from a QLDer.

Maybe its specific to this type of group(s) but thats where my gut feel comes from.

Quote from: kruddler – on October 27, 2026, 06:42:46 pm

Despite all of this, my gut feel is that one nation is a lot bigger in the northern states.

I suspect you wouldn't see a lot of difference in One Nation 'electoral' support between Victoria, and a place like Queensland.
It'd be pretty much the same around that low 20% mark.

That doesn't mean Northerners aren't more conservative/right leaning in their political views.
But those views are probably addressed by more 'right leaning' LNP and Independent candidates in the North.

Why switch to ON when you already have some who basically shares your political and social views.

The 'electoral' problem One Nation faces is that their support is patchy.
It will be particularly strong in some areas....up over 30% perhaps.
But in  others they will struggle around 10-15%
That's why the main focus in Victoria probably won't be the overall level of support for ON, but how it translates into actual seats in the parliament.

Quote from: DJC – on October 28, 2026, 03:44:40 pm

After Scotty Boland's batting in the 2nd Test, he could well be that "all-rounder" 

Let's not get too excited.

People forget though that before he started bowling Boland was actually an opening batsmen in sub-district, I think he started bowling because as an opening batsmen he had limitations!

My problem with the Starc, is that he's the 1 in 5 man, his bowling along with Hazelwood not bowling, basically cost us the last test, our batting was poor but other than Boland nobody looked like making a dent. We made nowhere near enough, and they made way more than they ever should have! Today is the typical Starc problem, people have already forgotten 3 or 4 innings of top end pie chucking because he cleans up the tail end so effectively.

Today we have Starc saying without Lyon they all suffer, Lyon is saying he's nothing without Starc and Hazelwood, that's the @Professer E‍ cartel in full swing!

btw. They pumped up Lyon for his first wicket, but that Saffie bloke basically threw his wicket away, if instead they had batted along at regular pace it looked like they could make 200 each!