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21
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Last post by Lods -
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: Lods – on


No, that's a pretty negative view.
You're betting against youngsters.
You're betting against your club succeeding.
Many of them will succeed and be really good contributors to any future success.
That's a positive view.

Which ones and how many are anyone's guess?
If you make predictions on individuals at age 19 and 20 there's a fair chance some of them will come back and bite you on the backside.

That's the nature of football, which has a habit of taking no notice of statistics.
You may be able to point to trends...but it's no guarantee of the individual aberrations.

Lods, with all due respect, you are not getting it.

I'm not talking about our club. Our players.
I'm talking about the entire AFL.
Thats not negative, its facts.
The entire points system is based off of those same ideas.

The chance of pick x being better than pick y and/or pick z is highlighted via a lookup table.
Thats statistics. It doesn't take into account a players name or the club they play for, it is sheer numbers.
Thats not negative. Thats reality.

Its simply a more advanced game of guessing what number will be rolled on a die.
Any number COULD come up at any time.
Long term, there is clear trends and that is that the numbers will come up relatively evenly.
The die doesn't care if #6 is your favourite number.
The die doesn't care if #6 worked well for you previously.
Long term, the results will be the results and they are predictable.
The short term is unpredictable, but will always work towards the same trend.....bucking that trend is the unlikely.

With all due respect Kruds
You've moved from individual player assessment to an argument over stats
Don't judge on the likelihood of a statistic coming to fruition
Assess the players, not just in their initial games, but over a body of work.

I understand the statistics
A pick 3 is a better chance of playing two hundred games than a pick 50
But if statistics were the only factor in football there would be no tipping competitions.
Results would follow the stats
Football is an unpredictable game, possibly one of the most unpredicatble in the world due to the shape of the ball and conrolling it, and a whole range of factors like momentum changes...just look at last weekends results.

But you're not relying on stats are you?
You're identifying individual players and saying you don't think they'll make it.
Is that based solely on where they were picked up?
Surely it's a bit deeper than that.

Lucas
Ben
Cooper
Billy

Will they all fail?
Will they all make it?
Will it be a half-half
Who knows.
I'd rather we just concentrate on their individual journey's and enjoy watching their development.
If they don't improve we can wait for the next batch.

But "I don't think they'll make it" ...is just a guess, one that once entrenched is hard to shake, and leads to a bias where every bit of bad play is highlighted in a match thread and every bit of good play is ignored.



22
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments
Last post by ElwoodBlues1 -
Quote from: LP – on
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on

Yep Kennett wants the Libs/Nats teaming up with One Nation to oust Labor if that happens and it works then I reckon it's a forgone conclusion it will happen at Federal level .
They'll be fragmented with nutters having a controlling vote!

True, Labor have had to manage/massage the Greens/Independents to pass policy through the Senate and its a messy business dealing with Larissa Waters and crew so how the Libs would deal with Pauline, Barnaby and their inflexible extreme right wing thinking/nutty high school political theories I dont know.
Its a mess when you have an opposition that cant make the Government accountable and improve their performance, having competent pollies on both side of politics makes the country run better and lifts performance but we are a long way from that happening and when you couple that with some of the madness going on overseas its a real worry looking forward.
Imagine the new Minister for Foreign Affairs Pauline Hanson talking to Donald Trump about Foreign Policy????
23
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: General Discussions
Last post by LP -
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on

Its like going to the dentist and finding you need root canal treatment and then subsequently a Crown, looking at $4K to get the job done and 6 hours total in the dentist chair or the alternative have an extraction for $150 in 15 mins.....how many people would stop and think I might need that tooth to be able to chew and eat my food or how many will just look at the price?
A bloke at work just lost a cousin, flew to Thailand for one of those "holiday and dental" deals and never returned, the family had to fork out to repatriate the body and there was no refund, insurance invalid, dough done life gone for what looked like a 50% discount. Some might say he was lucky, there are many who return disfigured and end up paying fortunes at this end to have it fixed, if they can!

Another chap I know has decided the discount route, option one was local $20k several visits over a couple of months, implant job done for life he's 60 already. Options two was $2k, pull the lot, wait 6 months for the gums to decide to shrink and eventually have a false set or bridge for a fraction of the cost, what's 6 months of gumming a steak between friends? He's living on soup and looks like Ms McGillicuddy, and planning to have the falsies done in Bali, of course!

24
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: General Discussions
Last post by ElwoodBlues1 -
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: Professer E – on
I make and sell tools so this is what I know.
Just to get an "Australian made" sticker takes a vetting process and ain't cheap. 

Buying local sounds great in principle but the reality is...if the local hardware store sells a locally made shovel for $70 and Asian made rubbish for $50, people buy the cheaper option everytime. Price wins out every time.
Bunnings has the ultimate business model....sell Asian-made junk at multiple, still cheap price points....makes that rubbish 50 shovel look like a premium product over the $20 one. Both are still cheaper than locally made.   Meanwhile local industry continues to be outsourced under free trade agreements.
Price always wins.  Simple consumer economics.

So why do i buy milwaukee tools if ozito is cheaper?

It is NOT always about price.

Educate people as to what short term benefits ultimately end up looking like.
You know the difference in the quality, and Joe Average who just wants to drill three holes in a piece of wood or drive his kids to school isnt going to care if its a Milwaukee or Hilti Power Drill or an Ozito or if its a Lexus or a Haval Jolion as long as it gets the job done for the least amount of money. Longevity in Products isnt as important as when we were younger and you hung onto tools for life and cars for 20 years etc.
You can try educating people but most want to know how much its costs not what it does or how long it will last, not everyone you run into is educated on a variety of subjects, can read and write well and a lot are borderline ignorant but you rarely find anyone who cant count money or work out whats expensive and what isnt.
Its like going to the dentist and finding you need root canal treatment and then subsequently a Crown, looking at $4K to get the job done and 6 hours total in the dentist chair or the alternative have an extraction for $150 in 15 mins.....how many people would stop and think I might need that tooth to be able to chew and eat my food or how many will just look at the price?
 
26
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Last post by kruddler -
Quote from: Lods – on
Quote from: kruddler – on
Nobody has said they can't make it.

Everybody hopes they do.

If you are a betting man, you bet against them based on where they were drafted. You can do that for every player drafted at a similar spot.
Clearly not all of them will fail, but more of them will fail rather than make it.
Thats the simple truth.

Thats not positive.
Thats not negative.
Thats simple statistics.

No, that's a pretty negative view.
You're betting against youngsters.
You're betting against your club succeeding.
Many of them will succeed and be really good contributors to any future success.
That's a positive view.

Which ones and how many are anyone's guess?
If you make predictions on individuals at age 19 and 20 there's a fair chance some of them will come back and bite you on the backside.

That's the nature of football, which has a habit of taking no notice of statistics.
You may be able to point to trends...but it's no guarantee of the individual aberrations.

Lods, with all due respect, you are not getting it.

I'm not talking about our club. Our players.
I'm talking about the entire AFL.
Thats not negative, its facts.
The entire points system is based off of those same ideas.

The chance of pick x being better than pick y and/or pick z is highlighted via a lookup table.
Thats statistics. It doesn't take into account a players name or the club they play for, it is sheer numbers.
Thats not negative. Thats reality.

Its simply a more advanced game of guessing what number will be rolled on a die.
Any number COULD come up at any time.
Long term, there is clear trends and that is that the numbers will come up relatively evenly.
The die doesn't care if #6 is your favourite number.
The die doesn't care if #6 worked well for you previously.
Long term, the results will be the results and they are predictable.
The short term is unpredictable, but will always work towards the same trend.....bucking that trend is the unlikely.
27
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: General Discussions
Last post by LP -
Quote from: northernblue – on
Are subsidies where you really want to go ?
Well, that is what you have to compete with, China operations are subsidised by default. Much of the imported product we buy is being produced under subsidy, we do not compete on equal terms.

Recall when GM moved to the Philippines, they took hundreds of million$ to stay another year or two, then took another few hundred million$ to move anyway. That is weak legislation and weak politics that allows that to happen. If they did that in China they'd ........................

If I want to make batteries in China, the CCP will become a 51% shareholder and build the factory for me which is repaid through dividends and various fees and taxes. It's a long term view. I have no up front capital, I have no approvals to seek, the government does it. If I feck up the business, the government gives me the lemon sars and finds a new partner, if I feck up very badly I'll go missing.

This is the primary reason nobody can compete with China on things like SolarPV and Batteries, Phones, Power Tools, etc., etc.. You are not competing with a company as a company, you are a company competing with a government that has a last man standing mentality. For China, India, and to some degree Russia and the USA, economics is war.

India has started doing the same basic thing for manufacturing, at the moment India is so heavily subsidised I have Chinese colleagues buying from India rather than making in China. But they see it as a now and then scenario, they take the profit now, then use it to fund the fight back then when India's subsidies and resources are strained.

Australian Politicians think you can compete on ingenuity and hard work, but the economic terms are not even which makes it impossible.

The same applies to primary produce and resources, both of which Australia shoots itself in the foot by not adding any value.

The big corporations can do this but only if they choose to invest, and can do so under the protection of valid anti-dumping legislation.
28
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Last post by Lods -
Quote from: kruddler – on
Nobody has said they can't make it.

Everybody hopes they do.

If you are a betting man, you bet against them based on where they were drafted. You can do that for every player drafted at a similar spot.
Clearly not all of them will fail, but more of them will fail rather than make it.
Thats the simple truth.

Thats not positive.
Thats not negative.
Thats simple statistics.

No, that's a pretty negative view.
You're betting against youngsters.
You're betting against your club succeeding.
Many of them will succeed and be really good contributors to any future success.
That's a positive view.

Which ones and how many are anyone's guess?
If you make predictions on individuals at age 19 and 20 there's a fair chance some of them will come back and bite you on the backside.

That's the nature of football, which has a habit of taking no notice of statistics.
You may be able to point to trends...but it's no guarantee of the individual aberrations.
29
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Last post by kruddler -
Nobody has said they can't make it.

Everybody hopes they do.

If you are a betting man, you bet against them based on where they were drafted. You can do that for every player drafted at a similar spot.
Clearly not all of them will fail, but more of them will fail rather than make it.
Thats the simple truth.

Thats not positive.
Thats not negative.
Thats simple statistics.
30
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Last post by Lods -
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: Lods – on


I actually wasn't even thinking about you....just the general tone of criticism of 20 year olds and unders...not just on here.
But you obviously have a guilty conscience to get upset by it. :D

You've been pretty dismissive of Billy Wilson and Cooper Lord.
Lets see how they go as the year progresses
By the way happy birthday to Cooper for the other day, who as he reaches his 21st must be well past it ;)  ;D

I wasn't suggested you were thinking about me. Was just questioning where you heard that from as i don't think anyone has been definitive on them....or anyone.

People don't like hearing that any player will not be good enough to make it. People expect everyone drafted will live up to the best versions of themselves and have a long and successful career. Anyone who even suggests otherwise is always 'negative'.
TBH, its similar with Wilson and Lord.
You point out i have something against them, just like others were pointing out issues with the campos.
In reality, its all the same thing. Odds are stacked against them that they will make it. Of all of them, Lord is outdoing his draft status the most, but still far from a 10 year premiership player yet, albeit looking the most likely out of that group.

I guess there are two ways we can look at it.

We can look at the player and see things they need to work on and say "I can't see them making it"
or
We can look at the player and see the attributes that led them to be drafted, but also look at the areas they need to work on and say "They're still young, they will have to show continuing improvement, they may make it."

One's a postive view, the other is a negative one....in a lot of cases these views are determined by our own bias and perceptions.
If the club isn't going great that may also increase our pessimism.

The thing is not every player can be a Sam Walsh or a Jagga Smith.
As you point out the expectaions on high draft picks are greater.

But that doesn't mean a pick round 40 or 50 can't develop into a regular player, someone who plays over 200 games and contributes to the succes of a club.
Premiership sides are full of these types of players.
For some of them the early years of their careers have been years of struggle-in and out of the side until they gain the necessary experience and maturity to reach their potential.

I'l say it again, and it's something I've learnt from personal experience...the 18-19 year old athlete can be a vastly different one from the more mature and experienced 22-23 year old.

I suppose it's up to each of us to determine whether we adopt a positive or a negative attitude to the young ones.
I'd prefer to give them a chance before making a firm judgement.

Ben would have played last year if not for suspension
Lucas did get game time
Billy Wilson got games at the end of last year and improved each one after showing good form in the VFL
Lord has been a regular member of the side and been rewarded with a contract extension.

The challenge for the Camporeale boys isn't to set the world on fire this year...it's just to show improvement and play some senior football. If they do that they put themselves in a good position to gain a contract extension. If we see nothing in terms of improvement they may be in the gun. But making a judgement on their 2026 before they've even kicked a ball in anger in a serious game  is probably a bit premature. You can argue they're not in the side to start with, but the depth around their positions means that they have to 'win' that place, not have it gifted.