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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Last post by Lods -
No, that's a pretty negative view.
You're betting against youngsters.
You're betting against your club succeeding.
Many of them will succeed and be really good contributors to any future success.
That's a positive view.
Which ones and how many are anyone's guess?
If you make predictions on individuals at age 19 and 20 there's a fair chance some of them will come back and bite you on the backside.
That's the nature of football, which has a habit of taking no notice of statistics.
You may be able to point to trends...but it's no guarantee of the individual aberrations.
Lods, with all due respect, you are not getting it.
I'm not talking about our club. Our players.
I'm talking about the entire AFL.
Thats not negative, its facts.
The entire points system is based off of those same ideas.
The chance of pick x being better than pick y and/or pick z is highlighted via a lookup table.
Thats statistics. It doesn't take into account a players name or the club they play for, it is sheer numbers.
Thats not negative. Thats reality.
Its simply a more advanced game of guessing what number will be rolled on a die.
Any number COULD come up at any time.
Long term, there is clear trends and that is that the numbers will come up relatively evenly.
The die doesn't care if #6 is your favourite number.
The die doesn't care if #6 worked well for you previously.
Long term, the results will be the results and they are predictable.
The short term is unpredictable, but will always work towards the same trend.....bucking that trend is the unlikely.
With all due respect Kruds
You've moved from individual player assessment to an argument over stats
Don't judge on the likelihood of a statistic coming to fruition
Assess the players, not just in their initial games, but over a body of work.
I understand the statistics
A pick 3 is a better chance of playing two hundred games than a pick 50
But if statistics were the only factor in football there would be no tipping competitions.
Results would follow the stats
Football is an unpredictable game, possibly one of the most unpredicatble in the world due to the shape of the ball and conrolling it, and a whole range of factors like momentum changes...just look at last weekends results.
But you're not relying on stats are you?
You're identifying individual players and saying you don't think they'll make it.
Is that based solely on where they were picked up?
Surely it's a bit deeper than that.
Lucas
Ben
Cooper
Billy
Will they all fail?
Will they all make it?
Will it be a half-half
Who knows.
I'd rather we just concentrate on their individual journey's and enjoy watching their development.
If they don't improve we can wait for the next batch.
But "I don't think they'll make it" ...is just a guess, one that once entrenched is hard to shake, and leads to a bias where every bit of bad play is highlighted in a match thread and every bit of good play is ignored.
