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It's now or never!

Well the next 3-4 years.
That's our permiership window.
Our side are mostly in their prime in terms of age and experience.
In 4 years just about all our best will be the wrong side of 30
With Tasmania coming into the competition, the draft will be compromised, so given we'll probably be in the top half of the comp, our draft picks will be well down the list in that period.
Some of the Northern academies also seem well set up to siphon off more talent.

You look around at other sides and see young gun midfielders like Reid, Rowell, Horne-Francis, Daicos.
We will have Walsh, but he's not the 'power-impact player' that some of these other guys are, and we have no-one in the Cripps style of player coming through.

As well as that, there is nothing like Curnow, McKay, Weitering already on our list and developing.

There is time for our next generation to be sought out and secured but it needs to happen now.
Does that mean trading to secure some better draft picks?
We do currently have plenty of currency.
The balance is keeping what we need, and letting go some, who may be very good, in the interests of 'sustained success.
We have a side that can win a flag on its day.
What will that side look like in five years time.

Re: It's now or never!

Reply #1 –
Recruit the best Tasmanian kids in this year's draft.
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: It's now or never!

Reply #2 –
List wise and results wise, you'd think the next 2 or 3 years represents our best chance for a flag in maybe 25 years. But the right combination of list, coach, development, form, injury, luck, "managing moments" etc. remains as mysterious and elusive as ever, and is indisputably more art than science IMO.

I wouldn't be too gutted if we don't win a flag in that time frame. In a way, I really only want to make a GF if we are raging hot favorites, and pretty much guaranteed to win. Losses in finals are never great, but losing a GF is the hardest of all to deal with IMO.

Re: It's now or never!

Reply #3 –
Quote from: PaulP – on
I wouldn't be too gutted if we don't win a flag in that time frame. In a way, I really only want to make a GF if we are raging hot favorites, and pretty much guaranteed to win. Losses in finals are never great, but losing a GF is the hardest of all to deal with IMO.
That brings up the old discussion point - would you rather not play in a GF if you were a serious underdog or still be there and risk a beating?
These days just to make a GF is a great achievement and many players and supporters will have to accept that as being as good at it may get. Years ago, with 12 teams and us being a power team, we expected flags every so many years.
Personally I'd take a GF loss over a prelim final loss (or finishing out of contention) - sure the loss would hurt but as the saying goes 'there is always next year'. Glass half full for me.

Re: It's now or never!

Reply #4 –
Quote from: deepbluesee – on
That brings up the old discussion point - would you rather not play in a GF if you were a serious underdog or still be there and risk a beating?
These days just to make a GF is a great achievement and many players and supporters will have to accept that as being as good at it may get. Years ago, with 12 teams and us being a power team, we expected flags every so many years.
Personally I'd take a GF loss over a prelim final loss (or finishing out of contention) - sure the loss would hurt but as the saying goes 'there is always next year'. Glass half full for me.

Yes, no doubt some supporters will share this opinion. For me, a GF just feels too close to fail. Also, and I most certainly haven't looked into this (and I'm happy to be corrected), but I suspect the players are more shell shocked after a GF loss and it affects their performance the following year.

Re: It's now or never!

Reply #5 –
Quote from: deepbluesee – on
That brings up the old discussion point - would you rather not play in a GF if you were a serious underdog or still be there and risk a beating?
These days just to make a GF is a great achievement and many players and supporters will have to accept that as being as good at it may get. Years ago, with 12 teams and us being a power team, we expected flags every so many years.
Personally I'd take a GF loss over a prelim final loss (or finishing out of contention) - sure the loss would hurt but as the saying goes 'there is always next year'. Glass half full for me.

It's an interesting point...
The 1999 Grand Final was one of mixed emotions.

We'd really probably played our 'Grand Final' the week before.
That win against  Essendon had most supporters thinking that was a pretty good year.
Even now, 25 years later that 'prelim win' ranks right up there with a flag.
I suppose it boils down to expectations.
If you expect to win you'll be much more disappointed if you lose.
If you expect to struggle and you 'beat the odds' the win means so much more.

I don't think any two flag wins are the same in a supporter's eyes.
The ones that stand out for me are 1970, 1972,1995.
I struggle to remember much about the others without referring back to match reports.

Quote from: PaulP – on
Yes, no doubt some supporters will share this opinion. For me, a GF just feels too close to fail. Also, and I most certainly haven't looked into this (and I'm happy to be corrected), but I suspect the players are more shell shocked after a GF loss and it affects their performance the following year.

A GF loss can probably have two very different outcomes for a side in the following year.
Some teams struggle with the loss, others use it as a spur for the next year.

Re: It's now or never!

Reply #6 –
I honestly believe we have a list that can challenge for a 3-4 year period - and now that we seem to be a destination club once again, with players taking unders to stay or arrive from other clubs, we could end up with a Richmond-like era  ;D if things are handled well.

But let's start with a GF first - once you're in the dance, you have a chance!  I've seen many underdog Carlton sides get the chocolates on the big day, because we have a great knack of winning GFs (since I've been going, we are 8-5 - as a comparison, over the same period, the Filth are 2-7 with 2 draws as well).

Just get to that last day in September - then you have 2 hours to make history!



This is now the longest premiership drought in the history of the Carlton Football Club - more evidence of climate change?

Re: It's now or never!

Reply #7 –
Lods, I agree.

Also, I've taken an increasingly dim view of the 99 PF with the passing of time. In the moment, it gave the impression that the club could maintain its place at the upper end of the competition, when really all it did was fool people and mask a whole bunch of cultural and other problems, which came to roost only a couple of years later. 

Re: It's now or never!

Reply #8 –
Quote from: PaulP – on
Lods, I agree.

Also, I've taken an increasingly dim view of the 99 PF with the passing of time. In the moment, it gave the impression that the club could maintain its place at the upper end of the competition, when really all it did was fool people and mask a whole bunch of cultural and other problems, which came to roost only a couple of years later. 

I was just happy to have taken a flag from essendon.   Knew we weren't going to win it and didn't even bother watching but was satisfied we took it off essendon and gave it to North.  We were a sife that left too much to too few back then.  Hopefully that's not the case with us and batman and Robin.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: It's now or never!

Reply #9 –
Quote from: madbluboy – on
Recruit the best Tasmanian kids in this year's draft.
We've already started with Cowan, he'll end up back in Tassie I reckon. Should get something for him.
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time
2025-Carlton can win the 2025 AFL Premiership

Re: It's now or never!

Reply #10 –
My best mate has been saying for about 10 years that he had a premonition back then that we won the flag in 2027.
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time
2025-Carlton can win the 2025 AFL Premiership

Re: It's now or never!

Reply #11 –
Quote from: Gointocarlton – on
My best mate has been saying for about 10 years that he had a premonition back then that we won the flag in 2027.
I don't want to wait until then!   Let's hope it's the fourth in a row....!
This is now the longest premiership drought in the history of the Carlton Football Club - more evidence of climate change?

Re: It's now or never!

Reply #12 –
Draft pool is thin for Tassie kids this season, most of the talent will come from Victoria. Id give us a 3 year window to win a flag, we need to find another Cripps to keep our cycle going or become experts like Geelong at topping up and continually play finals.

Re: It's now or never!

Reply #13 –
You would have to do a bit of a list comparison with other sides.
And not just with numbers of youngsters but quality of youngsters.
I guess my concern is that we're now in our prime with a talented list...but not much coming through in that Under 25 group group.

Where is our Reid, Horne Francis, Rowell etc...
and a side like Sydney has a group of very talented youngsters.
That suggests short term success.
We're fine and competitive for now, but it may not be a long stint at the crease.

Re: It's now or never!

Reply #14 –
Quote from: Lods – on
You would have to do a bit of a list comparison with other sides.
And not just with numbers of youngsters but quality of youngsters.
I guess my concern is that we're now in our prime with a talented list...but not much coming through in that Under 25 group group.

Where is our Reid, Horne Francis, Rowell etc...
and a side like Sydney has a group of very talented youngsters.
That suggests short term success.
We're fine and competitive for now, but it may not be a long stint at the crease.

Tend to agree Lods. We really need to win it sooner rather than later.
Reality always wins in the end.