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Topic: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments  (Read 375461 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #690 –
I still think Labor will win. One Nation will steal more Liberal votes than Labor.




2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #691 –
I don't think they actually need to do very much, they fill a vacuum created by issues that arise affecting the major parties.
DrE is no more... you ok with that harmonica man?

Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #692 –

Quote from: Baggers – on

Perhaps an important question is how do people of low intellect, poor morality, zero emotional intelligence and seemingly deeply mired in anger/rage, such as PH (and Trump), get into these positions of influence in  the first place?

Not only do they negatively influence other discontented lost souls wherever they go, they grow anger, discontent, fear and ethical degradation. All they achieve is creating, merging and growing a movement of social decay... cheered on by emboldened malcontents.

It's probably a model that's been used since the beginning of time.

When things are bad (high prices, a breakdown in law and order) you find someone to blame...be it a religion, an ethnic group or a political opponent.
You create a 'baddie'.
All your woes are the responsibility of the 'baddies'.
They're not individuals...they're all the same....they all think the same.
There are no good people amongst the 'baddies'...they're not the same as us.
And if they don't want to be the same as 'us' ...they can go.

But in amongst that division you've created, you throw in some 'appealing' populist ideas that make it seem like you have the answers.
Of course, in most cases costings don't really matter.
You will probably never be in a position to have to implement them anyway, so you can promise the world...and you may gain enough support to be in a position to have some influence over policy making.

In the unlikely event that you ever are in a position to govern...you'll eventually get found out, and it will all come crashing down.
It will then be the responsibility of those that follow to put it all back together, but more often than not there will be some damage that is irreparable.

The thing is though...the opportunity for the rise of these people and parties depends on things being pretty crook to start off.
And that falls back on the governments in charge at the time.





Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #693 –
You can usually tell where this will land, based on how the parties behave. 

Labor are bumbling and fumbling their way to the election.  Have they stuffed up too much to bring this back?  Arguably.  Thing is, public sentiment is a bit fickle.  Labor voters are labor voters.  Pensioners, and public sector employees.  The kids at school and uni are also more likely to lean their way these days (perhaps its always been that way).   Have things deteriorated for these groups enough to say that people have had a gutful?  Probably not.  Its probably a generational thing where one party gains ascendancy and the other loses it.  Support for them goes with it, just depends where we are at as a whole.  Some see Labors recent economic policies as good.  Some see them as scoring an own goal.  To me, it spells tax grab, to others distribution or redistribution of wealth.  Personally, once something comes in, it really goes, so the genie is out of that bottle.  No putting it back in.  It all smells like a the government are attempting to claw back a lot of money spent, and then pointing the finger at the public for inflation is not helping their cause.  Most people I know are spending on needs not wants and rising costs everywhere is crippling everyone from what I can see.

The liberals.  The only real viable alternative.  They are currently on the attack, making sure everyone knows Labor's shortcomings.  There are enough there to be able to do this successfully.  Thing is, they often forget they need to offer solutions, not just point to problems.  I'm not seeing enough language to suggest that they truly doing anything that is revolutionary, even though they talk a big game, I cant tell you what they will change, and that they will make a difference.  Sentiment might be enough to get them in, it will be a somewhat phyrric victory with one stint in office, if they don't really come to the party with anything though and the geo political climate is one that seems like we are in for years of disruption.  They might win this fight and lose the next one because there is currently nowhere to go in the geo political economic climate and us being at the mercy of foreign interests.  They would do well if they suggest we become more self reliant, but sadly, we all know its too costly to do this as our labor force and regulations are too expensive to compete with foreign interests.  The costs of being an advanced economy that looks after its workforce.  That wont change.


The others.  

The Greens are labor lite.  Their votes generally end up preferences to labor, and this area is where a lot of the social norms are pulling towards regarding LGBTQ, Green energy, sentiment, et al.   If people have had enough of them as a whole, you will get that silent shift.  Thing is, people already at the greens, will likely shift to labor, and im forecasting that due to rising costs, and most of it on the usual green energy etc, they will swing from greens to labor if anything and still preference greens secondary, as thats a more natural progression.  We may have seen this last election actually already.

The independents.  Guns for hire.  They purport to be a disruptor, but they are silently on board with one or the other, and a vote for them is all about the preference vote, and ensuring that the government cant do much more harm as they have to win over more seats to perform change.  Its a vote for the status quo more than anything. 

One nation.  Any votes they win preference liberal.  Them growing means the libs are more likely to get closer to winning over labor.  Thing is, they are also likely to steal votes from Liberal.   Not sure they are a truly viable alternative, but Pauline appears to be doing enough to get herself a government pension which IMHO is all the politicians are interested in. 

Given the average person doesn't actually get one on means testing, Im assuming that they are all pigs feeding at the trough and not much more.

The disillusioned masses.  Donkey votes default to the party in power, and im not throwing money away by not voting which would be my only way to send a message about what I think of the political parties of today.   I wonder if a donkey vote sends a message.  Does anyone even contemplate this?

All adds up to more of Labor really.  Probably a split room, with no clear majority and more of the status quo.  C'est la vie.  Thats where I see things going if anyone cares.  No doubt someone will try fight me on this, but I forecast a few things in our future.

1.  GST will go to 15% sometime in the next 3 to 5 years.
2.  More tax grabbing in the short term from the everyday person and all of us feeling poorer. 

We might see world war 3, or the people going into commmunes to live.  Who knows for sure.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #694 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on


Pauline appears to be doing enough to get herself a government pension which IMHO is all the politicians are interested in. 


As Pauline wasn't a member in 2004, she gets what the general public get (except super contributions are currently 15.4%).  No one has entered politics since 2004 for a government pension, as they don't exist.  Those that were in parliament prior to 2004 are still eligible for the old scheme.

Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #695 –
Quote from: dodge – on
Quote from: Thryleon – on


Pauline appears to be doing enough to get herself a government pension which IMHO is all the politicians are interested in. 


As Pauline wasn't a member in 2004, she gets what the general public get (except super contributions are currently 15.4%).  No one has entered politics since 2004 for a government pension, as they don't exist.  Those that were in parliament prior to 2004 are still eligible for the old scheme.

You need to train google AI better:


Yes, they still get a significantly better deal than the average Australian.
While the days of the automatic, lifetime, six-figure pension are gone for politicians elected after October 2004, they still enjoy structural financial advantages that place them far ahead of a regular worker:

1. A Much Higher Superannuation Contribution Rate

Under the Parliamentary Superannuation Act 2004, modern federal politicians receive a 15.4% employer superannuation contribution.
• The Politician Rate: 15.4%
• The "Average Joe" Rate: 12% (the standard Superannuation Guarantee legislated for everyday Australian workers).
Note: This 15.4% rate matches the premium tier provided to career Commonwealth public servants, rather than the standard private sector.

2. The Power of a High Base Salary

Because superannuation is a percentage of earnings, the sheer size of a politician's salary creates a massive compounding advantage.
• As a base salary, a standard federal backbencher earns well over $200,000.
• A 15.4% contribution on that baseline means the government deposits over $30,000+ into their super fund every single year.
• For context, a worker on an average Australian salary of $100,000 receiving a 12% super rate gets just $12,000 a year. A politician generates a retirement nest egg at more than triple the pace.

3. Extra Contributions for Extra Roles

If a post-2004 politician becomes a Minister, a committee chair, or takes on an office-holder role, their salary increases. The 15.4% super contribution is paid on their total parliamentary salary, not just the base backbench rate.

4. Safety Nets Ordinary Workers Don't Get

If an ordinary worker loses their job, they rely on standard redundancy or JobSeeker. As mentioned, if a politician is voted out or loses party backing, they receive the taxpayer-funded Resettlement Allowance of up to $105,625 to cushion their transition [aph.gov.au].
Would you like to look closer at how much a specific political role earns overall, or see how state-level politicians' perks compare to the federal ones?



To go with all of that, here:

https://maps.finance.gov.au/pay-and-employment/parliamentarians/salary-parliamentarians

I used to be a health services worker, in the private sector.  Government employees are generally treated quite well, it scales up the more you earn. 
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #696 –
Quote from: madbluboy – on
I still think Labor will win. One Nation will steal more Liberal votes than Labor.






Libs will win with a majority and so they should. 12 years of the current clown act is well and truly enough and the voters know it this time.

The corruption and lies from this mob has gone on for long enough and everyone with even just a few functioning brain cells knows it and will vote accordingly

Even though the rusted on old Labor voters still trying to strike fear by saying Libs wont be any better, look at want Kennett did a quarter of a century ago, Libs may even be worse, careful want you wish for........ goes on and on and on.

Its their last ditch effort to impart so doubt when its all they have to cling to - well too much damage has been done to our once great state for that only remaining strategy to work on this occasion.


 

Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #697 –
Quote from: Baggers – on
Perhaps an important question is how do people of low intellect, poor morality, zero emotional intelligence and seemingly deeply mired in anger/rage, such as PH (and Trump), get into these positions of influence in  the first place?

Not only do they negatively influence other discontented lost souls wherever they go, they grow anger, discontent, fear and ethical degradation. All they achieve is creating, merging and growing a movement of social decay... cheered on by emboldened malcontents.

I'd guess there's a few reasons. These types are riding a trendy wave, which is a global shift to the right, apart from rare exceptions here and there. Part of it is voters being dissatisfied with the major parties, justifiably or not. Her appeal is mostly to right wing types who are not happy with the Libs, and working class people in the outer suburbs who seem to believe that Labor has lost touch with their traditional roots. I'd guess country / rural types would also find the faux tough talk and simplistic solutions appealing, not that there's any actual solutions on offer. 5 minutes of critical thinking will reveal that at the heart of their value system is a moral and intellectual rot. People have been duped since time immemorial, and that will keep happening unless people wake up. Like the Simpsons episode where Homer discovers he has a half brother, and the half brother put Homer in charge of designing a car for the "average person." Unsurprisingly, it turns out to be a disaster, because solving complex problems requires a lot more than clowns. Be careful what you wish for.

Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #698 –
Quote from: shawny – on
Quote from: madbluboy – on
I still think Labor will win. One Nation will steal more Liberal votes than Labor.






Libs will win with a majority and so they should. 12 years of the current clown act is well and truly enough and the voters know it this time.

The corruption and lies from this mob has gone on for long enough and everyone with even just a few functioning brain cells knows it and will vote accordingly

Even though the rusted on old Labor voters still trying to strike fear by saying Libs wont be any better, look at want Kennett did a quarter of a century ago, Libs may even be worse, careful want you wish for........ goes on and on and on.

Its their last ditch effort to impart so doubt when its all they have to cling to - well too much damage has been done to our once great state for that only remaining strategy to work on this occasion.


 
Im with you on voting for Liberal, but sadly, I think what I forecasted will play out.  Labor will form government and win through preference voting.  The libs arent popular enough and have been a bottle job for too long.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #699 –
The Greens are dead, so I'm not sure where that vote goes, Labor probably.

PHON is basically stealing the traditional regional vote, which is ironic because her policies and her backers are basically going to roger them rigid. I don't think she'll have much impact on the major parties, she is a clown, and further nobody I know who has ever voted Liberal is ever going to vote for a Bananaby related party ever!

I think it'll be closer than people realise, and probably decided by voters swinging between the major parties. To me it's too close to call, but there is plenty of time left for one or all of them to screw up a bit more!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #700 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Quote from: shawny – on


Libs will win with a majority and so they should. 12 years of the current clown act is well and truly enough and the voters know it this time.

The corruption and lies from this mob has gone on for long enough and everyone with even just a few functioning brain cells knows it and will vote accordingly

Even though the rusted on old Labor voters still trying to strike fear by saying Libs wont be any better, look at want Kennett did a quarter of a century ago, Libs may even be worse, careful want you wish for........ goes on and on and on.

Its their last ditch effort to impart so doubt when its all they have to cling to - well too much damage has been done to our once great state for that only remaining strategy to work on this occasion.


 
Im with you on voting for Liberal, but sadly, I think what I forecasted will play out.  Labor will form government and win through preference voting.  The libs arent popular enough and have been a bottle job for too long.

Im very confident this time -

Labors ability to govern rating is an all time low and Carroll knows it. Putting aside all the corruption under their watch and the sad state of essential services in vic and the 200 BILLION debt its their lack of leadership at the top that typifies them IMO - no integrity or honesty in any of them.

I recall vividly, Dictator Dan categorically stating in one of his many pre elections lies he would not be resigning mid term dispite all the rumours he would and within a few months he did exactly that. Then we are forced to accept the unelected Premier Jacinta who oversaw the big build disaster with 15B goneski and like Dan took no accountability. So she was booted out and we have to accept the 2nd unelected premier in Carroll - and all this in the one term!

How any voter can trust a word that come from this absolute rabble of a party is beyond me

Carrolls campaign in comparing the liberals with Kennetts ruin considering it was over a 1/4 of century ago is an insight as to how desperate they are. Then stating he would fix the hospitals was the cherry on top as to their utter stupidity - FMD...... They had 12 years to fix them and this bloke promises he finally will do it now - how convenient Ben!

So unless we were voting for the next Hilter or Kim Jong Un, we cannot get any worse - Libs are far from perfect but will be a vast improvement on what we have suffered with the corrupt lying clowns we have had in power for over the last decade.   

Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #701 –
If folks think One Nation will cut into the conservative vote and prevent the LNP from forming government...resulting in a continuation of Labor rule.

Why would you advocate a vote for One Nation if you want to see an end to Labor. ???  ???

Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #702 –
It is really worth listening to Richard Willingham on ABC radio.  He provides an objective analysis of each party's policy releases, why they've chosen that tack, and whether they're getting any traction.

Jess Wilson is campaigning well and the most recent polls give her the lead.  However, it seems that there's no uniform swing to the L-NP from the ALP and we should see a patchwork of results with some electorates sticking with the ALP, some being won by the L-NP and a couple going to PHON.  I'm sticking with my prediction of a minority government, probably L-NP, and a hostile upper house.
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball

Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #703 –
Quote from: Lods – on
Quote from: kruddler – on
Despite all of this, my gut feel is that one nation is a lot bigger in the northern states.

I suspect you wouldn't see a lot of difference in One Nation 'electoral' support between Victoria, and a place like Queensland.
It'd be pretty much the same around that low 20% mark.

That doesn't mean Northerners aren't more conservative/right leaning in their political views.
But those views are probably addressed by more 'right leaning' LNP and Independent candidates in the North.

Why switch to ON when you already have some who basically shares your political and social views.

The 'electoral' problem One Nation faces is that their support is patchy.
It will be particularly strong in some areas....up over 30% perhaps.
But in  others they will struggle around 10-15%
That's why the main focus in Victoria probably won't be the overall level of support for ON, but how it translates into actual seats in the parliament.

Maybe.

Its hardly statistically significant, but there are a few random different facebook groups (1000's on each) that sometimes stray into political debates. I would say 90% of the time One nation gets a push, its started from a QLDer.

Maybe its specific to this type of group(s) but thats where my gut feel comes from.
 

Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #704 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: Lods – on


I suspect you wouldn't see a lot of difference in One Nation 'electoral' support between Victoria, and a place like Queensland.
It'd be pretty much the same around that low 20% mark.

That doesn't mean Northerners aren't more conservative/right leaning in their political views.
But those views are probably addressed by more 'right leaning' LNP and Independent candidates in the North.

Why switch to ON when you already have some who basically shares your political and social views.

The 'electoral' problem One Nation faces is that their support is patchy.
It will be particularly strong in some areas....up over 30% perhaps.
But in  others they will struggle around 10-15%
That's why the main focus in Victoria probably won't be the overall level of support for ON, but how it translates into actual seats in the parliament.

Maybe.

Its hardly statistically significant, but there are a few random different facebook groups (1000's on each) that sometimes stray into political debates. I would say 90% of the time One nation gets a push, its started from a QLDer.

Maybe its specific to this type of group(s) but thats where my gut feel comes from.
A qlder or a Russian qlder…?
Let’s go BIG !