Carlton Supporters Club

Both the mental aspect and statistical aspect can play a part in predicting an outcome on a player...and yes, luck is  also a factor-right place, right time, right coaches.

My original point was that a skinny 19-20 year old is not the same player as a 22-23 year old with 3-4 pre-seasons in a high performance strength and conditioning program.
Add to that the years of experience learning the tricks at an elite level and it 'can' be a completely different footballer.
So speculating that an individual won't make it is just a guess.

Statistics may give you a trend that shows the further down the draft the less chance of a long career, but there are enough exceptions to that rule to show that each player needs to be looked at as an individual rather than a draft pick.

@Kruddler-When Sheahan made his comment about players having to have at least one 'elite' quality was he talking about at AFL level or at under 18 level.
Because deep into the draft those picked up would probably register one elite aspect to their play at that u/18 level.
And at AFL level there would be plenty of footsoldiers who wouldn't register as elite in any category.

You can't play too many 18 -20 year olds no matter how good they are for their age.

Scott is an experienced coach who would fully understand the pressures on young players and the intense competition for spots in an AFL team.  I’m pretty sure that he would also understand that parental interference and/or commentary won’t help.

\@Kruddler-When Sheahan made his comment about players having to have at least one 'elite' quality was he talking about at AFL level or at under 18 level.
Because deep into the draft those picked up would probably register one elite aspect to their play at that u/18 level.
And at AFL level there would be plenty of footsoldiers who wouldn't register as elite in any category.

Quote from: Lods – on March 25, 2026, 10:44:27 am

\@Kruddler-When Sheahan made his comment about players having to have at least one 'elite' quality was he talking about at AFL level or at under 18 level.
Because deep into the draft those picked up would probably register one elite aspect to their play at that u/18 level.
And at AFL level there would be plenty of footsoldiers who wouldn't register as elite in any category.

I don't think he specified that specifically, but are they not one and the same?
If someone has elite speed at U18 level, will he not have elite speed at AFL level? et al.

Quote from: kruddler – on March 25, 2026, 01:09:26 pm

I don't think he specified that specifically, but are they not one and the same?
If someone has elite speed at U18 level, will he not have elite speed at AFL level? et al.

I do think it's different
Would you say someone like Matthew Watson was elite at u/18 level.
Good mark excellent long kick.
He was a man-child and had probably jumped ahead of his peers at that level.
He was an All Australian at that level...but it didn't translate to senior football and he became a much maligned player.
For some it works in reverse. They struggle to make an impact as a youngster just scraping onto a list but blossom once they get the opportunity and proper training and guidance.

Quote from: Lods – on March 25, 2026, 07:41:18 pm

I do think it's different
Would you say someone like Matthew Watson was elite at u/18 level.
Good mark excellent long kick.
He was a man-child and had probably jumped ahead of his peers at that level.
He was an All Australian at that level...but it didn't translate to senior football and he became a much maligned player.
For some it works in reverse. They struggle to make an impact as a youngster just scraping onto a list but blossom once they get the opportunity and proper training and guidance.

I can't comment too much on Watson specifically as i didn't watch his u18 stuff.
He certainly was a man child though.
He was AA u18 chb iirc, but that doesn't say much because Paul Bower shared that same honour in his individual draft year.

Theres always outliers for every example which I've happily admitted. That's also part of statistics. But the more data you get the clearer it all becomes, even if there are outliers.

Cerra and Newman will not be considered due to lack of match fitness.  Fair call

Cerra and Newman will not be considered due to lack of match fitness.  Fair call

Taylor Byrne set to play this Sunday according to Riley Beveridge, he’ll be a welcome spark to our team although he’ll be on managed time due to limited fitness.