Carlton Supporters Club

Capitalism has recessions every 4-7 years on average. 

Capitalism has recessions every 4-7 years on average. It hasn’t stopped the greatest level of wealth inequality in human history. Whatever hits the billionaire class take in the next little while won’t affect them. Stock buy backs, tax cuts, gutting of government agencies etc will guarantee their wealth continues to increase. They gave Trump ridiculous amounts of money and he will look after them.

If we actually experienced a recession, we might actually fix half our problems.  The seeds for todays ills financially were sown 10+ years ago.

Looking at mining specifically, there is currently a lot of the future development that targets China, India and Japan not so much the USA, in particular all the big players are developing pelletization(spherical blended ore dust) over Australia's traditional strength which is roughs(Crushed ore), primarily because China, India and Japan want pelletized raw feed stock to improve the green credentials of foundries. (Pellets contain less waste and require less energy to process.)

I'd suggest our miners long term are betting against the USA, it seems odd given the head honchos spend a lot of time at Mar-A-Lago, even more odd are the tariffs because a lot of the Australian operations are US or Canada owned.

A lot of RedTrumps tariff motivation was justified politically through the claim it would bring manufacturing and processing back to the USA, but it's not like you can pick up the ground and shift it across the Pacific Ocean, the roughs are the closest thing to doing just that but you transport waste too. Most customers are asking for more of the initial processing close to the mine so they aren't paying for waste to be shipped, a huge chunk of the "green" benefit comes from just that process. Processing roughs or pellets are the only sectors in which the USA can grow, it's already geared up to accept billets.

We need to convince the White House that we will fight Chinese subsidies while not subsidising our own sectors.
We gave  $2 billion to the aluminium industry as part of the Green Aluminium Production efforts and the $2.4 billion pledged as part of the Whyalla steelworks rescue.

Fighting Chinese subsidies is difficult as we have to protect our large iron ore export industry, proving we are tough on China to the USA without  poking the Chinese bear too hard leaves us in the middle playing politics with nutters on both sides of the fence.

Quote from: Thryleon – on March 12, 2025, 02:49:11 pm

If we actually experienced a recession, we might actually fix half our problems.  The seeds for todays ills financially were sown 10+ years ago.

So, you're possibly a follower of Keating, but Keating thinks RedTrump is a deadset moron!

I understood Keating's reasoning (For both the moron and the recession ), but those actions came with a measure of control and planning that appears to be absent from RedTrump's game plan. (fyi, I spent about 3 years working side by side with Keating's former head economic adviser, it's amazing the depth of knowledge they need to get into that role, impressive but it led to a full on mental breakdown. Says something about the level I'm at, the waste heap!)

There ends the lesson.

When was the last proper recession?  2008 (the GFC)? 

Our measures to fight recession is hyper inflation.  The problem now is, that the growth has run out of steam, the hyper inflation remains, and the bubble is about to burst.

Our covid years saw spending off the charts, which exacerbated this issue.  we have avoided recession for such a long time, and the last tool they used to combat it, was to reclassify the definition of a recession. 

If we actually experienced a recession, we might actually fix half our problems.  The seeds for todays ills financially were sown 10+ years ago.